Reality sends signals.Independent digital magazine · November issue · 2026
Cultura Data-Driven by Gustavo Santos

04 · Open lab

Play with the numbers. Distrust them.

Statistics gets more interesting when we can touch the data, test a hypothesis and discover what the chart is hiding.

Experiment 01 · Probability

The mystery of the 23 birthdays

With 23 people in a room, the chance that at least two share a birthday is over 50%. The secret is that there are 253 possible pairs. Try changing the size of the group.

Theoretical model: 365 equally likely days, no leap year and independent birthdays.

Probability50.73%
Possible pairs253

Experiment 02 · Game

How many loaves, Seu Joaquim?

Seu Joaquim, a baker, has to decide how many bread rolls to bake. Leftovers are waste; running out means lost sales and complaints. In four stages — gut feeling, history, forecasting and marketing — the game shows how data helps decide under uncertainty, without eliminating it.

A short game designed for phones, currently in Portuguese only. The bakery and its 90 days of data are fictional.

Illustration of Seu Joaquim, the baker in the game

The lab does not stop here

From surprise to investigation.

In upcoming experiments we will work with moving charts, public data, football, the environment, statistical comparisons and seemingly impossible stories.

Try a storytelling exercise